Interesting Info from Professor Weckwerth at the U of M

I thought some of you may be “into” the current idea that market trend setters, prestigious people, early adopters etc is the way life change can be marketed AND then implemented. Yes it can be marketed that way. Business Schools are big on Branding…as well as lotza consultants making big dollars. There is however a very clear counter argument to this and you may want to read both of these articles and Order Versus Chaos By: Fast Company staff Peter Graven writes: It describes the work of Duncan Watts who believe good old mass marketing may be more effective especially if coupled with someword-of-mouth effects but that “since you can never know which person is going to spark the fire, you should aim the ad at as broad a market as possible–and not waste money chasing “important” people.”CP: (A few of you were there.) The lecture yesterday by Prof Valenti pushed hard on network theory. But nearly all was post hockery. One can describe the distribution of events by a statistical distribution called the Poisson. It is the one usually used for random arrivals, waiting lines (Cueing) etc. The first application of “accident prone” with the Poisson applied to the description was for mule handlers in the Prussian army. The Poisson model fit it perfectly. Thus one can use the number of mule kicks as a risk factor to label accident prone people…post hock description, but it doesn’t work for prediction! That’s why there are big arguments against insurance companies who label people as accident prone. Nearly all insurance companies do that now…but… “After the fact description” is far different from “before the fact” prediction. Vernon E. Weckwerth, PhD, Professor, DIP, ISP Dir Emeritus, U of MinnesotaHealthcare Administration, SPH, Room A270A Mayo Bldg., FAX:612-624-8804 420 Delaware SE, Minneapolis, MN 55455, ISP Fax: 612-625-1071